Diesel Deal Increases Pressure on Putin’s Ports and Shipping

By The Maritime Executive 2026-10-11 18:21:23

The deal over supply of diesel between Presidents Trump and Putin this week has generated huge controversy. But from the perspective of the maritime community, the results could turn out rather differently than expected – giving the Russians more of what they have enough of already, namely money, and requiring them to ship to the United States what they are short of, namely diesel. Having exported 2.6 million tonnes of diesel per month prior to 2025, the Trump-Putin deal overturns a self-imposed export ban which Russia introduced on July 8, and which in theory is still in place. There are already widespread shortages of diesel at petrol pumps, and Russia has resorted to relaxing production standards and importing diesel from India, Korea, Morocco and Turkey. Ukraine, suffering an increase in civilian casualties, has signaled its intent to carry on with its targeted attacks on Russia’s diesel production system, so long as Russia continues its attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

Russia has 32 major refineries and historically used to refine about 6.5 million barrels per day.  But diesel production is concentrated at six primary sites, all of which have been successfully targeted by Ukrainian long-range drone and cruise missile strikes, no doubt with the aid of precise American geolocation data. The Ukrainian strikes, at increasingly long range, have in particular targeted crude distillation units within refineries, where crude is initially processed. But catalytic and hydrocrackers where distillate is refined into diesel and hydro reformers have also been subject to special attention.

Of the six diesel production sites, the Kirishi refinery 65 miles southeast of Leningrad was the biggest producer of diesel for exports, but was shut down completely after Ukrainian attacks on May 5 and August 30 and has not resumed production.

The NORSI and the Volgograd refineries are operating at 25% capacity, after attacks in July.

Crude distillation units at the Perm refinery were severely damaged in attacks in July and on August 21.

Omsk refinery was attacked on July 7 and set ablaze once again on October 8, an attack carries out at a range of 1,860 miles and aided apparently by local insurgents.  Taneco refinery in Tatarstan was hit twice in August at a range of 745 miles.

Only refineries in Eastern Siberia and the Far East remain largely unscathed, but diesel production at these facilities has not been significant, albeit no doubt is currently being ramped up.

In recent months, Russia's diesel production is estimated to have fallen by nearly 30%, but in reality is likely to have fallen further. Russian chemical and refinery engineers can be expected to have developed the speed of their repair work, but their ingenuity will be challenged by repeated Ukrainian attacks hitting the same critical nodes in each refinery. 

So the amount of refined diesel reaching export ports is much reduced – and then has to face the hurdle of getting out of the ports where it is loaded, and then avoiding Ukrainian drone attacks once it is at sea. These attacks look set to continue, and to be intensified.

Connected by an oil products pipeline, Primorsk has been the primary shipment port, used for the last exports of diesel to the United States and North Africa. But Vysotsk and Ust Luga – also in the St Petersburg area – have also been pressed into service using makeshift railcar deliveries. Previously a big export terminal, Tuapse on the Black Sea Krasnodar coast has gone months without loading a single cargo following heavy and continuous Ukrainian sea drone attacks, and very little is flowing through nearby Novorossiysk. The Russians will also make use of the Volga Don Canal system to move small cargos both west to the Sea of Azov but also northwards and to the Caspian Sea – but necessarily in small, shallow-draught quantities.

The one egress not yet affected is through the Far Eastern ports of Nakhodka and Kozmino. But diesel can only reach these ports via use of railcars sent down the Trans-Siberian Railway, albeit there is some local production of diesel.

Whereas in the land battle Ukraine is making progress, it faces a very harsh winter as Russia seeks to destroy its entire energy infrastructure. Having found a pressure point, and successfully exploited it, Ukraine is unlikely to give up the only means it has to defend its civilian population, so attacks on diesel export terminals and shipments are likely to intensify.