Big Oil’s War-Related Profits Anger Governments

Oil and gas supermajors are on course to post markedly higher second-quarter earnings, and the windfall is drawing political fire on both sides of the Atlantic, according to a report by OilPrice.com.

The gains follow a sharp climb in crude and gas prices triggered by hostilities involving the United States, Israel and Iran. After US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, Tehran moved to block traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a step it had long threatened but never previously taken. The disruption jolted markets and tightened supply, pushing Brent crude above US$100 per barrel, though prices stayed below the peaks recorded in 2022.

The price surge fed through to US pump prices, which climbed past US$4 per gallon and stoked recession warnings. President Donald Trump publicly accused oil companies of price-gouging, ordered the Department of Justice to investigate, and pressed fuel retailers to cut prices towards US$2.50 per gallon. Industry representatives countered that they do not fully control retail prices, which track international benchmarks imperfectly, partly because shifts in refinery output — such as increased diesel and jet fuel production to offset supply lost to Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries — can reduce gasoline volumes and lift prices.

Analyst estimates cited in the report point to substantial results. ExxonMobil's adjusted profit was projected at between US$15.9 billion and US$19 billion for the quarter, with Chevron around US$9.7 billion to US$10 billion — more than triple first-quarter figures for both. Refiners including Marathon and Valero were also expected to report strong quarters. In Europe, Green members of the European Parliament called on the largest fossil fuel firms to fund measures making public buildings and homes across the bloc resilient to heatwaves.

For Malaysian and wider Southeast Asian readers, the episode underlines how quickly Middle East disruptions and Hormuz risk can reshape regional freight economics, tanker demand and refining margins. Producers and service providers exposed to elevated crude prices may benefit, but the sharp political backlash signals that governments could revisit windfall levies or pricing scrutiny. Refiners and shipowners in the region should also note the volatility in product balances, which can shift bunker costs and cargo flows across key trading routes.