Iran Instructs Houthis to Prepare Red Sea Shipping Attacks

Iran has reportedly directed Yemen's Houthi movement to prepare for a possible closure of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the southern chokepoint into the Red Sea, should Washington act on threats to strike Iranian power infrastructure. Citing senior Iranian sources, the report says Tehran's leadership has discussed the plan with its Houthi allies, who are now awaiting firm instructions to begin striking commercial vessels.

A source close to the group indicated that stockpiles of drones and advanced missiles have been distributed across Yemen's highlands overlooking Hodeidah and the Gulf of Aden. Any formal decision to shut the strait would reportedly be managed on the ground by personnel from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The waterway handles an estimated 7% of global energy trade, and a shutdown would likely push shipping lines to reroute around southern Africa, driving up voyage costs and freight rates at a time when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is already under strain.

Saudi Arabia is described as especially exposed, having shifted around 70% of its energy exports through the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Riyadh has been pushing crude flows out of Yanbu near maximum capacity following the collapse of its four-year truce with the Houthis, which broke down after missile launches at the kingdom and Houthi accusations of Saudi air strikes on a Houthi-held airport. The kingdom has leaned on its 1,200km East-West Petroline to supply Yanbu and bypass Hormuz, with crude shipments through the terminal averaging above 4 million barrels per day since June and reaching 4.7 million bpd after the truce ended on 13 July. To guard against sustained multi-front disruption, Saudi Arabia is reportedly weighing a substantial expansion of its western pipeline and terminal capacity.

For Malaysian and Southeast Asian operators, the developments underline how quickly Middle Eastern chokepoint risk can ripple into regional markets. A simultaneous squeeze on the Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz would tighten crude and LNG supply, lift tanker rates and lengthen delivery times for cargoes bound for Asian buyers. Shipowners, charterers and bunkering operators across the region should factor in higher insurance premiums, potential rerouting and volatile freight economics as tensions persist.